Trade: China coup attempt before 2027?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $27K
- Total Volume
- $127K
- 24h Volume
- $204
- Open Interest
- $23K
Market outcomes
| China coup attempt before 2027? | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Market context
A coordinated military or security-force attempt to overthrow China's government or leadership within the next 14 months would constitute a coup attempt under this market's definition. The current order book on Polymarket prices this event at 3% implied probability, reflecting trader assessment that such an attempt remains highly unlikely during the settlement window through end-2026. The definition excludes revolutionary action by non-state actors, isolated protests, or unverified government claims of foiled plots, narrowing the scope to deliberate state-actor coordination aimed at unlawful seizure of control.
Historical precedent suggests coups in single-party authoritarian systems with entrenched power structures occur infrequently. China's last significant internal power struggle occurred during the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976), whilst more recent factional tensions—such as the 2012 Bo Xilai incident or the 2015 military reforms under Xi Jinping—were managed through party mechanisms rather than coup attempts. Comparable modern cases in Vietnam and the Soviet Union involved gradual institutional shifts rather than sudden coordinated overthrows. The 3% probability reflects both the structural stability of China's current security apparatus and the rarity of successful coup attempts in consolidated authoritarian regimes.
Traders should monitor developments in China's military leadership, factional tensions within the Politburo Standing Committee, and any significant security force reorganisations. Xi Jinping's consolidation of power over the past decade has centralised command structures, though economic slowdown, regional tensions, or unexpected leadership health events could theoretically create conditions for factional conflict. Official Chinese media claims of foiled plots would require independent corroboration from international sources to trigger resolution, given the market's requirement for "widely reported" attempts.
Wikipedia Context
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China Southern AirlinesChina Southern Airlines is a major airline in China, headquartered in Guangzhou, Guangdong. It is one of the three major airlines in the country, along with Air China and China Eastern Airlines.
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China Coast GuardThe China Coast Guard is the maritime security, search and rescue, and law enforcement service branch of the People's Armed Police (PAP) of China. The emergency number of the Coast Guard is 95110, which began operation in 2019.
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China Communications Construction CompanyChina Communications Construction Company, Ltd. (CCCC) is a Chinese majority state-owned, publicly traded, multinational engineering and construction company primarily engaged in the design, construction, and operation of infrastructure assets, including highways, skyways, bridges, tunnels, railways, subways, airports, oil platforms, and marine ports. CCCC h
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China Construction BankThe China Construction Bank (CCB) is a Chinese partially state-owned multinational banking and financial services corporation headquartered in Beijing, China. It is one of the "big four" banks in China, and is the third largest bank in the world by total assets behind the Agricultural Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. The bank ha
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "China coup attempt before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 3% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $3333 if YES resolves true — a 3233% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$127K in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $204 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "China coup attempt before 2027?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 3%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "China coup attempt before 2027?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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