Trade: Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $11K
- Total Volume
- $27K
- 24h Volume
- $7
- Open Interest
- $9K
Market outcomes
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | 17% YES | 84% NO |
Market context
Alexandre de Moraes, a Justice on Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal), faces potential removal or resignation before the end of 2026. The 17% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects relatively low near-term odds of his departure, though the market is actively pricing the possibility across its liquidity pools.
De Moraes has been a polarising figure since his appointment in 2017, particularly following his controversial decisions during the 2022 election period and subsequent investigations into alleged anti-democratic activities. His tenure has drawn criticism from both left and right political factions, and he has faced calls for impeachment from various quarters. Historical precedent in Brazil shows that Supreme Court justices rarely face removal before reaching mandatory retirement at 75, though impeachment remains a constitutional option requiring congressional action. The last successful removal of a sitting justice occurred decades ago, suggesting institutional resistance to such proceedings.
Traders should monitor congressional activity regarding potential impeachment motions, statements from President Luiz Inácio Lula's administration regarding de Moraes's position, and any developments in ongoing investigations that might alter political pressure on the justice. Recent reporting from major Brazilian outlets including Folha de S.Paulo and O Globo has tracked shifting political alliances that could affect support for or against removal efforts. The settlement window extends through 2026, capturing a full electoral cycle and any associated political realignments that might influence de Moraes's position.
Wikipedia Context
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Alexandre DesplatAlexandre Michel Gérard Desplat is a French film composer and conductor. He has received numerous accolades, including two Academy Awards, three BAFTA Awards, two Golden Globe Awards, and two Grammy Awards. Desplat was made an Officer of the Ordre national du Mérite and a Commander of the Ordre des Arts et des Lettres both in 2016.
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Alexandre de MoraesAlexandre de Moraes is a Brazilian jurist, former politician, former president of the Superior Electoral Court, and current justice of the Supreme Federal Court. Moraes was appointed to the Supreme Court by President Michel Temer in 2017 when serving as Minister of Justice and Public Security. Previously, Moraes had acted as Secretary for Public Security in
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Alexandre DestrezAlexandre Destrez is a French pianist, keyboardist, composer and musical arranger. He is particularly well known for his musical collaboration on the Tourist and Boulevard albums of St. Germain.
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Alexandre de BeauharnaisAlexandre François Marie, Viscount of Beauharnais was a French politician and general of the French Revolution. He was the first husband of Joséphine Tascher de La Pagerie, who later married Napoleon Bonaparte and became empress of France. Beauharnais was executed by guillotine during the Reign of Terror.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 17% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $588 if YES resolves true — a 488% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$27K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 17%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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