Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Jack Schlossberg | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Alex Bores | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Erik Bottcher | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Carolyn Maloney | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Andrew Cuomo | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Brad Hoylman-Sigal | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Keith Powers | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gale Brewer | 0% YES | 100% NO |
New York's 12th congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 23 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES outcome—that a nominee will be announced by the 3 November 2026 deadline—at 17%, implying a 83% probability that no nominee emerges or is formally announced within the specified timeframe. This pricing reflects either substantial uncertainty about whether a nominee will be formally declared, or expectations that the Democratic Party machinery in NY-12 may not follow standard nomination procedures by the resolution deadline.
Historical precedent suggests Democratic primaries typically produce clear nominees well before November. In comparable House races, state and local party organisations announce nominees shortly after primary elections conclude. The 17% probability appears to price in either an unusually contested or fractured primary process, or uncertainty about whether formal nomination announcements will meet the resolution criteria's specificity regarding "official Democrat sources" and democrats.org documentation.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and filing deadlines in early 2026, which typically occur several months before primary elections. The New York State Board of Elections sets candidate filing windows that will determine the field size. Any signs of party dysfunction, multiple candidates refusing to concede, or delayed official announcements could shift the probability substantially. The resolution hinges on whether a consensus nominee is formally documented by official Democratic channels rather than merely winning the primary vote itself.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$353K in lifetime turnover and $165K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $47 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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