Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Ottaviano, Italy mayoral runoff election is currently scheduled to be held on June 7 and 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottaviano as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottaviano.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Biagio Simonetti | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
| Ferdinando Federico | 61% YES | 40% NO |
| Other | — | |
Ottaviano, a comune in the Campania region near Naples, will hold mayoral elections on 7–8 June 2026, with a potential runoff included. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES outcome at 9%, reflecting substantial uncertainty about which candidate will secure the mayoralty. This low probability suggests the market is pricing in either a fragmented field with no clear frontrunner or significant backing for alternative candidates.
Italian municipal elections frequently produce tight races, particularly in smaller comuni where local factions and family networks substantially influence outcomes. Comparable Campanian mayoral contests have seen surprise results when multiple candidates split the vote in first rounds, forcing runoffs where coalition dynamics shift. The 9% implied probability indicates traders are assigning low odds to a specific candidate winning outright, though the market's design accommodates second-round scenarios, which are common in Italian municipal politics.
Key catalysts will include candidate declarations and coalition announcements in the months preceding the election, typically occurring between late 2025 and early 2026. Local Campanian media coverage and any shifts in regional political alignments could reshape expectations. The settlement window extends to 8 June 2026 at 06:00 UTC, with a fallback resolution date of 30 April 2027 if results remain unclear. Traders should monitor Italian municipal election schedules and any early polling or endorsement patterns from regional parties, which often signal likely outcomes in smaller comuni races.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ottaviano Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$191 in lifetime turnover and $280 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $191 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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