Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Jed Cochran | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Nancy Dyson | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Jackson Lahmeyer | 68% YES | 32% NO |
| Paul Royse | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mark Tedford | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Kelly B. Walsh | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
Oklahoma's 1st congressional district will hold a Republican primary on 16 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal trading activity in this market or a consensus view that resolution remains highly uncertain at this early stage. With settlement not occurring until after the primary vote, the current price formation likely represents thin liquidity rather than conviction about the eventual outcome.
Republican primaries in Oklahoma's 1st district have historically featured competitive fields, though the district itself leans heavily Republican in general elections. The current 0% probability sits at an extreme that typically indicates either no meaningful bids on the YES side or traders pricing in substantial uncertainty about whether a nominee will be formally announced by the November 2026 deadline. Comparable early-stage congressional primary markets often see minimal activity until candidates formally declare and campaigns materialise, which typically accelerates in late 2025 and early 2026.
Traders should monitor formal candidate announcements and filings with the Federal Election Commission, which typically intensify in the months preceding a primary. The Oklahoma Republican Party's official communications regarding the primary schedule and candidate registration deadlines will be critical catalysts. Any changes to the primary date, candidate withdrawals, or party endorsements could shift market pricing substantially as the June 2026 primary approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "OK-01 Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$38K in lifetime turnover and $57K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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