Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Maura Sullivan | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Carleigh Beriont | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
| Candidate J | — | |
| Candidate L | — | |
New Hampshire's 1st congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 8 September 2026 to select the party's nominee for the House seat currently held by Chris Pappas. The current 21% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects significant uncertainty about the eventual nominee, with traders pricing in a competitive field or potential late-entry scenarios typical of midterm cycles where candidate recruitment extends into the year before the election.
Historical precedent from recent NH-01 contests provides context for interpreting this probability. Pappas won his 2020 primary with 52% of the vote against multiple challengers in a relatively crowded field, whilst his 2022 primary saw him secure 70% support with less competition. The 21% probability suggests the market is pricing in either a genuine multi-candidate primary or uncertainty about whether a clear frontrunner has yet emerged. New Hampshire Democratic primaries in House races have typically seen establishment-backed candidates prevail, though grassroots challengers occasionally gain traction in competitive districts.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements through early 2026, particularly whether Pappas seeks re-election or pursues higher office, which would dramatically reshape the primary landscape. The New Hampshire Democratic Party's official candidate filing deadlines and any endorsements from state party leadership will serve as key catalysts. Additionally, redistricting outcomes and any shifts in the district's partisan lean following the 2024 cycle could influence candidate recruitment decisions. The settlement window closes on 8 September 2026, coinciding with the primary election itself, leaving minimal time for post-primary resolution disputes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $31K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $44 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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