Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 89% YES | 12% NO |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| A | — | |
| Democratic Party | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Other | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
Illinois's 16th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES resolution (Democratic hold) at 89%, reflecting strong confidence in the incumbent party retaining the seat. This probability reflects the district's recent electoral history and demographic composition, though the final two years of the Biden-Harris administration and broader midterm dynamics remain uncertain variables.
IL-16 has trended Democratic in recent cycles, with the district voting for Joe Biden by approximately 3 percentage points in 2020 and maintaining Democratic representation through the current cycle. Historical precedent suggests that districts with this lean rarely flip in midterm elections absent significant national headwinds or local candidate quality disparities. The 89% implied probability aligns with typical pricing for safely Democratic seats in Republican-leaning midterm environments, though not overwhelmingly so—suggesting the market prices meaningful but contained Republican pickup risk.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements from both parties, expected in late 2025 or early 2026, as well as any redistricting challenges or demographic shifts affecting the district's composition. National midterm fundamentals—particularly generic ballot polling and approval ratings in the lead-up to November 2026—will likely drive probability movements. Local economic conditions and any significant candidate scandals could shift the current pricing, though the district's structural Democratic advantage appears priced as the dominant factor in current market positioning.
The Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives is seventh in the line of succession to the office of Governor of Illinois.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IL-16 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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