Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Rick Caruso | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Katie Porter | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Steve Hilton | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Stephen Cloobeck | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Betty Yee | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kyle Langford | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Eleni Kounalakis | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Tony Thurmond | 0% YES | 100% NO |
California will hold its gubernatorial election on 3 November 2026, with the winner taking office in January 2027. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects the order book on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty or positioning ahead of candidate announcements and campaign developments. Resolution requires agreement across Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC on the winning candidate, with official certification serving as the fallback if media outlets diverge.
California's gubernatorial races have historically been competitive, though the state's Democratic registration advantage (roughly 46% to 24% Republican as of 2024) shapes baseline expectations. Governor Gavin Newsom, elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022 with 59% of the vote, is term-limited and cannot seek another consecutive term. The 2026 race will therefore feature an open seat, a condition that typically increases volatility and reduces predictability compared to incumbent-defence scenarios. The 2018 open-seat race saw Newsom win with 58% against Republican John Cox.
Key catalysts include formal candidate declarations, which typically accelerate through 2025, alongside primary election results scheduled for June 2026. Statewide polling, endorsements from major Democratic and Republican figures, and fundraising disclosures will provide traders with data to reassess probabilities as the race develops. Economic conditions in California—particularly housing costs, homelessness policy, and business regulation—will likely feature prominently in campaign messaging and voter sentiment heading into November 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "California Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$33.9M in lifetime turnover and $6.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $583K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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