Trade: Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jae-Myung meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Lee Jae-Myung and Xi Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $5
- 24h Volume
- $25
- Open Interest
- $25
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| December 31 | 75% YES | 26% NO |
Market context
The market concerns whether Lee Jae-Myung, the Democratic Party leader and two-time South Korean presidential candidate, will meet in person with Xi Jinping, China's paramount leader, by the end of 2026. The resolution criteria require direct personal interaction—conversation, handshake, or equivalent engagement—rather than mere proximity at a shared event. The current order book implies a 26% probability of such a meeting occurring within the settlement window.
Precedent suggests high-level Korean opposition figures rarely secure formal bilateral meetings with Chinese leadership whilst out of office. Lee's previous presidential campaigns (2017, 2022) did not yield documented Xi encounters, though he has visited China for party delegations and business forums. By contrast, sitting South Korean presidents routinely meet Xi at multilateral summits or state visits. The 26% probability reflects the structural difficulty of arranging such a meeting outside formal diplomatic channels, though Lee's prominence as a potential future president and his party's historical China engagement provide some baseline likelihood.
Catalysts to monitor include Lee's legal proceedings—ongoing corruption trials could affect his political viability and travel capacity—and any shift in South Korea's China policy following the 2027 presidential election. Announcements of multilateral forums where both figures are scheduled (ASEAN summits, economic conferences) would increase meeting probability. Recent reporting from Yonhapnews and other Korean outlets has tracked Lee's international diplomatic activities, which remain the primary avenue for such encounters. The settlement window extends through end-2026, capturing the final months before South Korea's next presidential transition.
Wikipedia Context
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Mariana XimenesMariana Ximenes do Prado Nuzzi is a Brazilian actress. Her first role was in the telenovela Fascinação in 1998 where she portrayed the role of Emília Gouveia. In the same year she played the role of Ruth Stern in the film Caminho dos Sonhos. In 2000, she played in Uga-Uga portraying "Bionda". This role rise to prominence as she became widely known in Brazil
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Carlos Filipe Ximenes BeloCarlos Filipe Ximenes Belo, SDB, commonly known as Carlos Belo or Ximenes Belo is an East Timorese prelate of the Catholic Church. He became a bishop in 1988 and served as the apostolic administrator of the Diocese of Díli from 1988 to 2002. In 1996, he shared the Nobel Peace Prize with José Ramos-Horta for working "towards a just and peaceful solution to th
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$5 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $25 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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