Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 1. There is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify as a military engagement.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market concerns whether Nicolas Maduro remains in power following direct military conflict between the United States and Venezuela before the end of 2025. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the current assessment that such an engagement is extremely unlikely within the settlement window, though the market remains open for traders to position against consensus if they assess material risk differently.
Historical precedent suggests US military intervention in Latin America typically follows either sustained humanitarian crises with regional diplomatic consensus or direct threats to American personnel or territory. Venezuela's ongoing political instability and humanitarian challenges have not yet triggered direct US military action despite years of sanctions and diplomatic pressure. The 2019 Guaidó opposition movement and subsequent failed coup attempts occurred without US military involvement, establishing a pattern of American restraint despite regime change rhetoric. Regional actors including Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico have generally resisted calls for military intervention, preferring diplomatic and economic pressure.
Near-term catalysts centre on escalation dynamics involving the Guyana-Venezuela border dispute over the Essequibo region, which has seen increased military posturing since 2023. The International Court of Justice ruling in December 2023 upheld Guyana's territorial claim, yet military confrontation remains limited to naval positioning. Traders should monitor statements from the incoming Trump administration regarding Venezuela policy, any significant attacks on US diplomatic facilities or personnel, and whether regional consensus shifts toward military options. Reuters reported in November 2024 that Maduro's security forces have consolidated control despite opposition fragmentation, reducing immediate pressure for external intervention.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$190K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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