Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| A | — | |
| B | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 78% YES | 23% NO |
| Democratic Party | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Other | — | |
| D | — | |
| C | — | |
Wisconsin's 8th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The seat is currently held by Republican Tony Gallagher, who has represented the district since 2015. WI-08 encompasses parts of northeastern Wisconsin, including portions of Green Bay and the Fox Valley region. The district has voted Republican in recent cycles, though Wisconsin remains a competitive state in federal elections, with narrow margins determining outcomes in statewide races.
Historical performance offers context for assessing the district's partisan leanings. In 2022, Gallagher won re-election with 56 per cent of the vote against Democratic challenger Kat Medina, a margin consistent with the district's Republican lean. However, Wisconsin's political landscape has shifted considerably in recent years, with suburban areas showing increased Democratic support. The district's composition—mixing rural and suburban voters—mirrors dynamics seen across the Midwest, where midterm performance often diverges from presidential-year results.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, particularly whether Gallagher seeks re-election or vacates the seat. State legislative redistricting outcomes and any demographic shifts affecting the district's composition will influence competitive dynamics. National political conditions heading into the 2026 midterms, including approval ratings and economic sentiment, typically drive performance in districts like WI-08 that lack deeply entrenched partisan advantages. Local Wisconsin news sources and Federal Election Commission filings will provide essential updates on candidate recruitment and fundraising activity.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "WI-08 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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