Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Boeing | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| OpenAI | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Nvidia | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Lockheed Martin | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Freeport-McMoRan | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Micron | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Anthropic | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Eli Lilly | 26% YES | 75% NO |
The U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership in major corporations remains an exceptional occurrence outside crisis periods. The 36% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether conditions will deteriorate sufficiently to justify equity stakes before the end of 2026. Historical precedent is limited: the 2008–2009 financial crisis prompted stakes in General Motors, AIG, and financial institutions, whilst the pandemic triggered temporary equity conversions in airlines. These episodes were extraordinary responses to systemic risk, not routine policy. The baseline expectation is that equity ownership remains a tool of last resort rather than standard industrial policy, which anchors the probability below 50%.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through 2026. Banking sector stress, recession signals, or major corporate insolvencies could trigger government intervention. The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory and credit conditions will shape whether distressed companies require federal capital injections. Recent Congressional activity around industrial policy and semiconductor subsidies (such as the CHIPS Act implementation) shows appetite for government involvement, though equity stakes differ materially from grants or loans. Earnings reports, credit rating downgrades, and liquidity events at systemically important firms warrant close attention. The political environment heading into 2026 elections may also influence appetite for visible government ownership stakes, particularly if framed as protecting strategic industries or employment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which companies will the US take a stake in?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$82K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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