Trade: What will Trump post this week? (May 11 - May 17)
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $606
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Trust | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Ceasefire / Cease-fire / Cease fire | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| AG / Attorney General | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| ICE | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| DOJ | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| Baby | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Coal | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Table | 36% YES | 65% NO |
Market context
The market centres on whether former President Donald Trump will post a specific term on Truth Social during the week of 11–17 May 2026. The resolution hinges on original posts and replies containing the term in plain text; quoted posts, reposts, and text embedded solely within images do not qualify. The current order book implies a 39% probability of a "Yes" resolution, reflecting moderate uncertainty about Trump's posting behaviour during this particular seven-day window.
Historical patterns of Trump's Truth Social activity suggest high variability week to week, influenced by news cycles, legal developments, and campaign events rather than predictable schedules. During periods of elevated political activity—such as primary contests, court proceedings, or major policy announcements—posting frequency and thematic focus typically intensify. Conversely, weeks with limited external catalysts often see sparser engagement. The 39% implied probability sits between baseline expectations for a random week and elevated activity scenarios, suggesting traders view the upcoming period as neither particularly quiet nor exceptionally eventful.
Catalysts to monitor include any scheduled Trump campaign announcements, developments in ongoing legal matters, or significant Republican Party events during the settlement window. Congressional activity, economic data releases, or statements from other political figures may also prompt responsive posts. Traders should track Truth Social directly and monitor mainstream news coverage of Trump-related developments, as these typically correlate with increased posting activity and thematic shifts in his messaging.
Wikipedia Context
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Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential electionAfter Democratic nominee Joe Biden won the 2020 United States presidential election, Republican nominee and then-incumbent president Donald Trump pursued an unprecedented effort to overturn the election, with support from his campaign, proxies, political allies, and many of his supporters. These efforts culminated in the January 6 Capitol attack, described b
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Trump SteaksTrump Steaks was a brand of steak and other meats that was licensed by Donald Trump. The brand was launched in May 2007 and was exclusively sold through The Sharper Image and QVC. Due to poor sales and a failure to live up to sales and product expectations, The Sharper Image discontinued the Trump Steaks product line in July 2007, just two months after its l
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Trump Statue Initiative
The Trump Statue Initiative is a protest art project headed by director Bryan Buckley with support from Bradley Tusk. Noting "Trump is obsessed with statues", Buckley and his team have created pop-up living statues criticizing President Donald Trump and actions taken during his presidency. The exhibitions are prepared in partnership with local artists within
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Trump Castle (series)Trump Castle is a series of gambling video games published by Capstone Software between 1989 and 1993. The games are named after Trump's Castle hotel-casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and were released for Amiga, Atari ST, Commodore 64, Commodore 128, and MS-DOS.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "What will Trump post this week? (May 11 - May 17)" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $606 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "What will Trump post this week? (May 11 - May 17)"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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