Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | 14% YES | 86% NO |
As of early 2025, active fighting continues across multiple fronts in Ukraine, with Russian forces controlling roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory. No formal peace negotiations are currently underway, and both Kyiv and Moscow have publicly stated incompatible conditions for talks—Ukraine demanding full territorial restoration and security guarantees, Russia insisting on recognition of annexed regions. The 18-month settlement window to June 2026 requires not merely a ceasefire agreement but a signed written instrument committing both parties to a defined peace process with stated timelines and principles.
Historical precedent suggests low probability for rapid resolution. The Minsk agreements (2014–2015) took months to negotiate and ultimately failed to hold; the Istanbul talks (March 2022) collapsed within weeks. Ceasefires in comparable conflicts—Georgia (2008), Moldova (1992)—took years to formalise after major fighting paused. Current market pricing at 15% YES reflects scepticism about diplomatic breakthrough within 18 months, particularly given the scale of territorial dispute and domestic political constraints on both sides.
Key catalysts include any shift in US policy following the 2024 election, European diplomatic initiatives, or battlefield stalemate that might create negotiating pressure. Recent reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg indicates neither side has signalled readiness for substantive talks. Traders should monitor statements from Kyiv, Moscow, and intermediaries (Turkey, China, Vatican) for any movement toward pre-negotiation frameworks. The Polymarket order book currently reflects consensus that the probability of a signed agreement remains low, though geopolitical surprises and war fatigue could shift positioning materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$182K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $67K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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