Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? | 9% YES | 92% NO |
The 25th Amendment Section 4 removal process requires the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet to declare the President unfit, followed by Congressional supermajority confirmation within 21 days. This mechanism has never been invoked in American history. The current 9% implied probability on Polymarket reflects the substantial procedural and political barriers to formal removal, with the order book pricing in both the technical difficulty and the unprecedented nature of such action.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Section 4 was designed for scenarios of severe incapacity—the closest analogue being President Reagan's temporary transfer of power under Section 3 in 1985 during surgery, which was voluntary and brief. No sitting President has faced a genuine removal attempt via Section 4. The mechanism's disuse reflects its extreme political cost: Cabinet members would need to publicly declare the President unfit, risking party fracture and constitutional crisis. Even during periods of significant presidential controversy, Congress and Cabinet have historically preferred impeachment or electoral remedies.
Traders should monitor Cabinet stability and any statements from senior officials regarding presidential fitness. Recent reporting on Trump's health and cognitive assessments would likely trigger market movement, though such evaluations remain contested and politically charged. The timeline is constrained: any removal attempt must conclude by 31 December 2026, leaving limited window for the multi-stage process. The probability reflects that whilst Section 4 exists as constitutional mechanism, the political consensus required for invocation remains extraordinarily difficult to assemble under any realistic scenario within the settlement period.
The impeachment of Donald Trump may refer to:First impeachment of Donald Trump, the 2019 impeachment on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress Impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump First impeachment trial of Donald Trump Second impeachment of Donald Trump, the 2021 impeachment on a charge of incitement of insurrection Second impeachment trial
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24K in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $203 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 9%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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