Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Centre Party (C) | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Green Party (MP) | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Liberals (L) | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Party A | — | |
| Party C | — | |
| Party E | — | |
| Party H | — | |
Sweden will hold parliamentary elections on 13 September 2026, with this market tracking which party or coalition secures the second-largest seat count in the 349-seat Riksdag. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 27% probability for YES, reflecting uncertainty over which bloc will finish second. Settlement hinges on final seat allocation, with tiebreakers determined by total valid votes cast. The market remains open until the election date, allowing traders to adjust positions as polling data and political developments emerge.
Swedish parliamentary outcomes have historically been difficult to predict with precision, given the country's proportional representation system and multi-party landscape. The 2022 election saw the Sweden Democrats gain significantly, reshaping the political balance and altering traditional bloc dynamics. The centre-right Moderate Party led a four-party coalition government, whilst the left-leaning Social Democrats and the Sweden Democrats competed for opposition influence. These structural shifts mean historical polling patterns offer limited guidance; the second-place finish could plausibly go to several different parties depending on voter consolidation and campaign momentum over the next eighteen months.
Key catalysts include government policy announcements affecting immigration, economic management, and EU relations—all areas where Swedish parties diverge sharply. Polling releases from firms like Novus and Sifo will provide regular signals on shifting voter preferences. Any significant political realignment, leadership changes, or coalition negotiations could alter the competitive landscape materially. The market will also respond to broader Nordic and European economic conditions, which influence Swedish voter sentiment heading into the election window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $80K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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