Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| The Left | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| BSW | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Party A | — | |
| Party J | — | |
| Party K | — | |
| Party M | — | |
| Party S | — | |
| CDU | 6% YES | 94% NO |
Sachsen-Anhalt will hold elections for its state parliament on 6 September 2026. The market currently reflects 0% implied probability across all parties, indicating the order book has not yet formed meaningful positions ahead of this contest. The settlement mechanism awards victory to whichever party secures the most seats; in the event of a tie on seats, the party with the greater vote share prevails. The resolution window extends to 31 January 2027, with any failure to hold elections by that date triggering resolution to "Other".
Historical precedent from recent eastern German state elections provides context for reading current pricing. The 2021 Sachsen-Anhalt election saw the CDU secure 40.1% of the vote and 38 seats, with the AfD taking 24.1% and 25 seats, whilst the SPD managed 8.8% and 8 seats. The 2024 Thuringia and Brandenburg elections demonstrated significant volatility, with the AfD performing substantially above national polling in both contests. These results suggest the eastern German electorate remains unpredictable and sensitive to local conditions, making early-stage pricing unreliable.
Traders should monitor polling releases from institutes including Forsa, Infratest dimap and INSA, which typically intensify from mid-2026 onwards. Coalition negotiations following the election will determine which party claims the ministerial positions, though the market resolves solely on seat count. Developments affecting national CDU positioning, AfD regulatory status, and SPD performance in other state contests will likely influence sentiment. The absence of current order book activity suggests limited market attention; meaningful liquidity may only emerge as the election approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$696K in lifetime turnover and $79K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $296 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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