Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Sharif Street | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| David Oxman | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Morgan Cephas | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ala Stanford | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 19 May 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 58% probability that a nominee will be announced by the 3 November 2026 deadline, suggesting meaningful uncertainty around whether the primary process will conclude successfully or whether circumstances might prevent a formal nomination.
Historical precedent suggests Democratic primaries in competitive Pennsylvania districts typically resolve without incident, though the 2026 cycle presents variables absent from recent cycles. The PA-03 seat, currently held by Republican Scott Perry, has been a periodic Democratic target. Comparable open-seat or competitive primary scenarios in swing districts have generally produced nominees well ahead of the November deadline, though delays have occurred when multiple candidates remained viable into late spring. The 58% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a base-rate expectation of failure.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and field consolidation through early 2026, alongside any shifts in Pennsylvania Democratic Party guidance on primary timing or procedures. The state legislature's redistricting decisions could affect the district's competitiveness and thereby candidate recruitment. Any changes to Pennsylvania's primary election calendar or Democratic Party rules would constitute material catalysts. The five-month window between the May primary and the November resolution deadline provides substantial time for nomination confirmation, making the current probability assessment dependent largely on whether the primary itself occurs as scheduled and produces a clear winner.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$44K in lifetime turnover and $65K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $793 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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