Trade: # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market. This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the People Power Party (PP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026. Any seat won by the People Power Party in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $34K
- Total Volume
- $34K
- 24h Volume
- $49
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| 5 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 0 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 4 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| 6+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 2 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 3 | 53% YES | 48% NO |
Market context
South Korea will hold parliamentary by-elections on 3 June 2026, concurrent with nationwide local elections. At least four National Assembly seats will be contested, with the People Power Party (PPP) seeking to gain seats regardless of prior party control. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 7% probability that the PPP wins at least one seat in these contests, suggesting traders expect the party to underperform or face headwinds in these specific races.
Historical context matters considerably here. The PPP, South Korea's conservative ruling party, typically performs strongly in parliamentary elections, though by-elections often reflect localised dynamics and mid-term dissatisfaction with governing parties. The 2024 general election saw the PPP lose its parliamentary majority amid internal divisions and scandals, creating uncertainty about its electoral momentum heading into 2026. By-election results frequently diverge from national polling, particularly when held alongside local elections where regional and municipal issues dominate voter attention.
Traders should monitor several developments: formal candidate announcements from the PPP and opposition Democratic Party, which typically occur weeks before the election; any major political scandals or policy announcements that could shift sentiment; and turnout expectations, since local elections often draw lower participation than general elections. Recent South Korean political volatility—including impeachment proceedings and factional disputes within the PPP—remains relevant to seat-level outcomes. The specific constituencies contested will also matter substantially, as some districts lean conservative whilst others favour opposition parties.
Wikipedia Context
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Seats-to-votes ratio
The seats-to-votes ratio, also known as the advantage ratio, is a measure of equal representation of voters. The equation for seats-to-votes ratio for a political party i is:,
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Election apportionment diagramAn election apportionment diagram is a graphic representation of election results and the seats in a plenary or legislative body. These charts can also represent data in easy-to-understand terms, for example, by grouping allied parties together.
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Cupra RacingCupra Racing, formerly known as SEAT Sport, is the high-performance motorsport subsidiary of the Spanish automobile manufacturer SEAT, founded in 1985, succeeding the "SEAT Special Vehicles department" which had been formed in 1971 with the mission to enforce the brand's participation in rally championships, followed by 11 titles between 1979 and 1983. In 20
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Set TSP problem
In combinatorial optimization, the set TSP, also known as the generalized TSP, group TSP, One-of-a-Set TSP, Multiple Choice TSP or Covering Salesman Problem, is a generalization of the traveling salesman problem (TSP), whereby it is required to find a shortest tour in a graph which visits all specified subsets of the vertices of a graph. The subsets of verti
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$34K in lifetime turnover and $34K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $49 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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