Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round.
Election and policy markets historically tighten as polling firms publish their final round and prediction-market traders fade or back the consensus. Current odds favour the NO side at 6%, making this a high-confidence market with 331 days to resolution, giving the order book ample time to absorb new information, backed by $131K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Éric Zemmour | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Gabriel Attal | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Fabien Roussel | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| François Asselineau | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Valérie Pécresse | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Manuel Bompard | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Other | 47% YES | 54% NO |
France's two-round presidential system requires candidates to either win outright with over 50% in the first round or finish in the top two to contest a runoff. The next election is scheduled for April 2027, though early dissolution of the National Assembly could trigger an earlier vote. This market resolves affirmatively if a specified candidate finishes among the top two vote-getters in the opening round, regardless of their second-round performance.
The 6% implied probability reflects substantial uncertainty about whether this particular candidate will reach the runoff. Historical French elections show considerable volatility in first-round outcomes, with polling shifts of 3–5 percentage points common in the final months before voting. The 2022 election saw the top two positions settled between Macron and Le Pen, with third-place Mélenchon trailing by under 2 points, illustrating how tightly clustered mid-tier candidates can be. Current polling aggregates and regional breakdowns will be critical to assessing whether this candidate sits comfortably in the top two or faces genuine risk of elimination.
Key catalysts include major policy announcements from the Élysée, shifts in government composition, and economic data affecting voter sentiment ahead of 2027. The current political landscape—marked by fragmentation across left, centre and right blocs—means that consolidation patterns and strategic voting behaviour could reshape first-round distributions substantially. Traders should monitor parliamentary by-elections and opinion tracking from established French pollsters such as Ifop and Elabe, which regularly publish detailed breakdowns of candidate support across demographic and regional segments.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 30 April 2027. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Political markets occasionally see longer settlement when outcomes hinge on official certification rather than the polling result itself — the proposer waits for the certifying body's announcement, which can push payout 12-48 hours past the calendar end-date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?", political markets often see book depth concentrate in the 24-48 hours after a debate or policy event — spreads can widen to 3-5¢ for a few minutes after breaking news while makers re-price.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($131K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
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The mechanics for trading "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $131K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 April 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?", the considerations above apply directly — Political markets are exposed to information asymmetry between insider and retail traders, and to last-minute polling shifts that can move the line 15-20¢ in the final 48 hours. Long-dated political contracts also carry meaningful time decay if the underlying race is close.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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