Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | 16% YES | 84% NO |
Miguel Díaz-Canel has served as President of Cuba since April 2018, following Raúl Castro's formal departure from the role. The question of whether he will remain in office through June 2026 hinges on political stability within Cuba's single-party system and the health or political standing of the 63-year-old leader. The current 15% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects relatively low near-term expectations of his removal, though the seven-month window extends into a period where unforeseen political shifts could materialise.
Cuba's recent history offers limited precedent for sudden presidential transitions outside the Castro family's managed succession. Raúl Castro held power for fourteen years before stepping down; Fidel Castro's exit in 2008 followed a prolonged illness rather than acute political crisis. Díaz-Canel's position differs in that he lacks the revolutionary credentials of his predecessors, making him potentially more vulnerable to internal party pressure or health-related incapacity. However, no credible reporting has suggested imminent institutional challenges to his authority as of late 2025.
Traders should monitor statements from Cuba's Communist Party leadership, any announcements regarding Díaz-Canel's health or public appearances, and signals from the military establishment. The resolution mechanism accepts government announcements or consensus credible reporting, meaning news from international agencies or Cuban exile media outlets could trigger resolution if corroborated. The settlement window's timing through mid-2026 captures a period without scheduled elections or known constitutional events that would typically occasion leadership transitions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$246K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $356 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 16%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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