Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 5, 12:00 PM ET and June 12, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
Election and policy markets historically tighten as polling firms publish their final round and prediction-market traders fade or back the consensus. Current odds favour the YES side at 72%, making this a directional market with 10 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $3K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <5 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| 5-9 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 10-14 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| 15-19 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| 20-24 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| 25-29 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 30-34 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 35-39 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Khamenei's X account (@khamenei_ir) represents Iran's Supreme Leader's primary channel for direct public communication on the platform. This market tracks the volume of posts—including reposts and quote posts but excluding replies—during a specific seven-day window in June 2026. The resolution mechanism relies on xtracker.polyma's Post Counter, which captures posts within approximately five minutes of deletion, meaning the final count reflects near-complete posting activity across the settlement period.
Historical posting patterns from Khamenei's account show considerable variability, ranging from periods of infrequent activity to bursts of multiple posts daily, often coinciding with significant political events, religious observances, or international developments. The current 68% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders expect at least one post during this seven-day window—a relatively modest threshold given the account's typical activity levels. Comparable periods of Iranian political messaging have generally produced multiple posts weekly, though the account has occasionally gone silent for extended stretches.
Traders should monitor developments in Iran's domestic political calendar for June 2026, including parliamentary activity and any scheduled religious commemorations that historically prompt Khamenei statements. International tensions, particularly regarding nuclear negotiations or regional conflicts, could substantially increase posting frequency. The current probability reflects baseline expectations; significant geopolitical escalation or major domestic political events would likely shift the order book considerably higher, whilst periods of relative stability might support lower probabilities.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/khamenei_ir. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 12 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://x.com/khamenei_ir), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Political markets occasionally see longer settlement when outcomes hinge on official certification rather than the polling result itself — the proposer waits for the certifying body's announcement, which can push payout 12-48 hours past the calendar end-date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Khamenei # posts June 5 - June 12, 2026?", political markets often see book depth concentrate in the 24-48 hours after a debate or policy event — spreads can widen to 3-5¢ for a few minutes after breaking news while makers re-price.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($3K of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
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The mechanics for trading "Khamenei # posts June 5 - June 12, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$514 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $514 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/khamenei_ir. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Khamenei # posts June 5 - June 12, 2026?", the considerations above apply directly — Political markets are exposed to information asymmetry between insider and retail traders, and to last-minute polling shifts that can move the line 15-20¢ in the final 48 hours. Long-dated political contracts also carry meaningful time decay if the underlying race is close.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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