Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that Jeff Epstein, the New York financier, is still alive between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Jeffrey Epstein, the financier convicted of sex trafficking, died in a Manhattan jail cell in August 2019 whilst awaiting trial. His death was ruled a suicide by the New York City medical examiner, though the circumstances generated substantial conspiracy theories and public scepticism. This market tests whether incontrovertible proof of his continued survival will emerge before the end of 2026—a proposition the current order book prices at 6% probability, reflecting the consensus view that the official narrative remains substantially intact.
Historical precedent suggests extremely low base rates for high-profile figures confirmed dead by multiple institutional sources. When prominent individuals have been declared deceased following autopsy and public investigation, subsequent "alive" claims have typically failed evidentiary scrutiny. The 6% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this baseline scepticism, though it acknowledges non-zero possibility for scenarios involving document leaks, witness testimony, or biological evidence that contradicts the 2019 findings.
Traders monitoring this market should track developments from ongoing litigation related to Epstein's estate, any Freedom of Information Act releases concerning jail records, or statements from individuals with direct knowledge of events in August 2019. Recent reporting has focused on his associates and co-conspirators rather than questions about his survival. Resolution will require evidence meeting the "incontrovertible proof" threshold—a high bar that would necessitate contemporary documentation, credible witness accounts, or biological confirmation substantially more compelling than circumstantial claims or conspiracy narratives.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.2M in lifetime turnover and $47K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $86K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 5%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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