Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| C | — | |
| Republican Party | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| A | — | |
| B | — | |
| E | — | |
| Other | — | |
| D | — | |
Iowa's 3rd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 65% probability that a Republican candidate will win the seat, reflecting the district's recent electoral history and demographic composition. This probability is being formed by traders pricing in available information about candidate recruitment, fundraising, and structural advantages heading into the cycle.
IA-03 has trended Republican in recent cycles, with Republican Zach Nunn winning the seat in 2022 with 51% of the vote against Democrat Cindy Axne, who had held the seat since 2019. The district's shift rightward mirrors broader patterns in Iowa, where Republicans have consolidated support in rural and exurban areas. Historical precedent suggests that midterm elections typically see the party holding the White House face headwinds, though this effect varies by district competitiveness and local dynamics. The 65% implied probability reflects a lean-Republican seat rather than a safe one, consistent with IA-03's status as a genuine swing district that has changed hands multiple times this decade.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and filing deadlines in early 2026, along with early fundraising reports that will signal candidate viability and national party investment levels. Changes to Iowa's political environment—including shifts in voter registration, economic conditions, or unexpected retirements—could alter the calculus. National political momentum heading into the midterms will also influence the district's competitiveness, as will any redistricting or demographic shifts affecting the seat's composition.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IA-03 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $166 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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