Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 40% | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 35% | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| 30% | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 25% | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 20% | 9% YES | 92% NO |
Trump's approval rating will be tracked throughout 2026 using Nate Silver's aggregated polling data, with the market resolving affirmatively if his rating touches or falls below a specified threshold at any point during the calendar year. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting traders believe this threshold will almost certainly be breached before year-end.
Historical precedent provides context for interpreting this probability. Trump's approval ratings have fluctuated considerably across his political career, ranging from the mid-30s to low 50s depending on polling aggregator and time period. During his first presidency, his average approval hovered around 41%, with notable dips during impeachment proceedings and the pandemic response. Post-presidency polling has shown volatility tied to legal developments and electoral cycles. The specific threshold for this market determines whether the 100% probability reflects genuine certainty or reflects the threshold's positioning relative to recent historical ranges.
Traders should monitor several catalysts throughout 2026: major legislative outcomes from the Republican-controlled Congress, developments in ongoing legal proceedings, economic data releases that typically influence presidential approval, and significant foreign policy events. The 2026 midterm elections in November will likely generate substantial political volatility. Additionally, any major scandals or crises could produce sharp approval swings. Since Silver Bulletin's aggregator updates regularly as new polling data arrives, traders should track the timing of major polling releases and how they shift the aggregate, particularly in the final months approaching the December settlement date.
Low-temperature cooking is a cooking technique that uses temperatures in the range of about 60 to 90 °C for a prolonged time to cook food. Low-temperature cooking methods include sous vide cooking, slow cooking using a slow cooker, cooking in a normal oven which has a minimal setting of about 70 °C (158 °F), and using a combi steamer providing exact temperat
The following is a timeline of low-temperature technology and cryogenic technology. It also lists important milestones in thermometry, thermodynamics, statistical physics and calorimetry, that were crucial in development of low temperature systems.
Low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) is polycrystalline silicon that has been synthesized at relatively low temperatures. LTPS is important for display industries, since the use of large glass panels prohibits exposure to deformative high temperatures. More specifically, the use of polycrystalline silicon in thin-film transistors (LTPS-TFT) has hig
Truman Tennis Lowe (Ho-Chunk) was an American sculptor and installation artist. A professor of fine art at the University of Wisconsin, Lowe also served as a curator of contemporary art at the National Museum of the American Indian. He is known for large site-specific installation pieces using natural materials. His work is the subject of a retrospective at
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$71K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $266 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: