Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Decriminalize Adult Commercial Sexual Activity bill (SB26-097) (https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb26-097) is passed by both chambers of the Colorado General Assembly and becomes law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is official information from the government of Colorado; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Colorado bill to decriminalize sex work becomes law in 2026? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
Colorado's legislature is considering SB26-097, which would decriminalise sex work by removing criminal penalties for adults engaged in consensual commercial sexual activity. The bill would represent a significant departure from current state law, joining a small number of jurisdictions that have moved toward decriminalisation rather than legalisation with regulation. The measure must pass both the Colorado House and Senate and be signed into law by 31 December 2026 to resolve affirmatively.
The current 10% implied probability reflects substantial headwinds. Decriminalisation efforts have faced consistent resistance across US state legislatures, with only a handful of jurisdictions adopting comparable frameworks. New York's 2019 decriminalisation of sex work remains exceptional rather than trendsetting, and subsequent attempts in other states have stalled. Colorado's Republican-controlled legislature presents an additional structural barrier, as decriminalisation typically garners support from progressive Democrats rather than conservative majorities. Historical precedent suggests such bills require sustained advocacy momentum and shifting public opinion to advance.
Traders should monitor the Colorado legislative calendar for SB26-097's committee assignments and hearing dates, typically occurring in the January-April window during regular sessions. Sponsor statements, committee testimony records, and floor debate will signal whether the bill gains traction or faces early procedural obstacles. Recent reporting from Colorado Springs Gazette and Denver Post coverage of criminal justice reform efforts provides context on the legislature's appetite for contentious social policy changes. Any companion bills or amendments that emerge could reshape the measure's viability, as could shifts in legislative priorities following 2026 elections.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Colorado bill to decriminalize sex work becomes law in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$604 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 10%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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