Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Other | — | |
| A | — | |
| D | — | |
| Republican Party | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Democratic Party | 67% YES | 33% NO |
| B | — | |
Colorado's 8th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The seat is currently held by Democrat Jena Griswold, though redistricting and demographic shifts have altered the district's composition since the 2024 cycle. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate once all results are conclusively called, with any independent or third-party candidate assessed against Democratic or Republican party identification at the time of resolution.
CO-08 has historically leaned Democratic in recent cycles, though the district's partisan lean has tightened considerably. In 2022, the seat voted for the Democratic candidate by a modest margin in a district that includes parts of the Denver metropolitan area and surrounding regions. Comparable suburban districts across the Mountain West have shown volatility in midterm elections, with control often depending on turnout dynamics and candidate quality rather than fixed partisan advantage. The district's composition—mixing urban and exurban voters—creates conditions where both parties can be competitive, particularly if national conditions shift between now and November 2026.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and primary contests in both parties, expected to accelerate through 2025 and into early 2026. Changes to district boundaries through any redistricting process, though unlikely at this stage, would materially affect the electorate. National economic conditions, congressional approval ratings, and any significant legislative developments will shape the broader midterm environment. Local Colorado political developments and fundraising patterns will provide early signals of candidate viability and party investment levels in the race.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CO-08 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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