Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Randy Villegas | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| David Valadao | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| Rudy Salas | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Chris Mathys | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Jasmeet Bains | 52% YES | 49% NO |
California's 22nd congressional district will hold its primary election on 2 June 2026, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election regardless of party affiliation. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 42% probability that the market resolves to specific named candidates, with the remaining 58% probability distributed across "Other" outcomes, primarily reflecting uncertainty about candidate announcements and potential late withdrawals.
California's top-two primary system has produced varied outcomes across districts in recent cycles. In competitive seats, the implied probability of known candidates winning both top-two spots typically ranges between 35% and 55%, depending on field fragmentation and candidate clarity. CA-22 has historically been competitive, with the 2024 cycle featuring multiple candidates across party lines. The current 42% reflects moderate confidence that two clearly identifiable candidates will emerge and remain through the June primary, balanced against the possibility of late entrants, unexpected withdrawals, or insufficient candidate clarity by the November 3 resolution deadline.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements through early 2026, particularly from established local figures and party-backed candidates. The California Secretary of State's office typically releases detailed candidate filing information in March and April ahead of the June primary. Any significant candidate withdrawals, party consolidation efforts, or surprise late entries could shift the probability substantially. The resolution deadline of 2 November 2026 allows for post-primary clarity, but candidates must be formally announced before that date for the market to resolve to specific names rather than "Other."
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CA-22 Primary Winners" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $24 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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