Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Itamar Ben-Gvir ceases to be the Israeli Minister of National Security for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ben-Gvir's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, has served as Minister of National Security in Benjamin Netanyahu's government since December 2022. The market assesses the probability that he will leave this ministerial position—whether through resignation, dismissal, or coalition collapse—at any point before 30 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 3% probability of this outcome, reflecting trader conviction that Ben-Gvir will retain his post through the settlement window.
Israeli coalition governments have historically proved volatile, particularly those involving ideologically extreme parties. Ben-Gvir's tenure has already survived multiple crises, including disputes over judicial reform and military operations in Gaza. However, his party holds only six Knesset seats within a broader coalition, making him vulnerable to coalition restructuring. Previous ministers from smaller parties have exited office relatively quickly when coalition arithmetic shifted or when their policy demands created friction with larger coalition partners. The 3% probability reflects market assessment that such disruptions remain unlikely over the next eighteen months, though Israeli political dynamics can shift rapidly.
Traders should monitor coalition stability announcements, particularly statements from Netanyahu or other major coalition partners regarding government composition. Recent reporting on potential early elections or coalition realignment would serve as immediate catalysts. Ben-Gvir's public statements on security policy and his relationship with Netanyahu warrant attention, as significant policy disagreements have previously triggered ministerial exits in Israeli governments. Any formal announcement of his departure, even with a delayed effective date, would immediately resolve this market to Yes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 4%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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