Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Other | — | |
| E | — | |
| Democratic Party | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| A | — | |
| Republican Party | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| C | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Arizona's 1st congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The seat is currently held by Republican David Schweikert, who has represented the district since 2011. AZ-01 encompasses parts of Maricopa County, including portions of Phoenix and surrounding suburbs. The district has trended Republican in recent cycles, though Arizona's broader political landscape has shifted considerably since 2020, with the state becoming more competitive across federal races.
Historical context suggests AZ-01 remains a Republican-leaning seat, but the district's composition and voter behaviour warrant close attention. In 2022, Schweikert won re-election with approximately 52% of the vote against Democrat Jevin Hodge. The district's performance relative to statewide Republican margins will help calibrate expectations; if Arizona continues moderating towards the centre, even safely Republican districts may see tighter margins. Comparable suburban Phoenix seats have shown vulnerability when national headwinds favour Democrats, though AZ-01 has consistently favoured the GOP over the past decade.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, particularly whether Schweikert seeks another term or retires. Redistricting outcomes, though unlikely to change dramatically before 2026, could affect the seat's partisan lean. National political conditions—congressional approval ratings, presidential popularity, and economic indicators—will significantly influence turnout and persuadable voters in this suburban district. Primary contests in both parties, scheduled for August 2026, will clarify the general election field.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "AZ-01 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$453 in lifetime turnover and $671 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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