Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Javier Milei | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Esteban Bullrich | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sergio Massa | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Facundo Manes | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Victoria Villarruel | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Dante Gebel | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Person B | — | |
| Person D | — | |
Argentina will hold a presidential election on 24 October 2027, with the winner taking office in December that year. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 52% probability for the listed candidate, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the outcome. This probability sits between historical baseline expectations and reflects the volatile political environment that has characterised Argentine politics over the past decade.
Argentina's recent electoral history provides context for interpreting current odds. The 2023 presidential election saw Javier Milei's libertarian coalition achieve an unexpected runoff victory despite trailing in first-round polling, demonstrating the unpredictability of Argentine voters and the significance of second-round dynamics. The 2019 election saw Alberto Fernández defeat the incumbent Mauricio Macri, whilst the 2015 election marked the end of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's presidency. These cycles show that incumbent performance, economic conditions, and coalition fragmentation substantially shape outcomes, with no single faction maintaining durable electoral dominance.
Traders should monitor economic data releases through 2027, particularly inflation rates and employment figures, as these have historically driven Argentine electoral swings. Candidate announcements and primary elections (if held) will signal coalition strength and potential runoff matchups. The timing of any formal candidacy declarations typically occurs in the months preceding the election, with the CNE (National Electoral Commission) setting registration deadlines. Currency stability and central bank policy announcements will also influence voter sentiment, given that economic management has dominated recent electoral discourse.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Argentina Presidential Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$55K in lifetime turnover and $94K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $634 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 October 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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