Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Anthropic CEO arrested? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The market concerns whether Rario Amodei, chief executive of Anthropic, will be arrested or detained by law enforcement between now and 30 June 2026. The resolution criteria encompass formal arrest, voluntary surrender to authorities, or temporary detention pending judicial determination of a detention warrant. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability of this outcome, suggesting traders assess the likelihood as remote.
Historical precedent for technology sector executives facing criminal detention remains limited but instructive. High-profile cases involving founders and CEOs—including those prosecuted for fraud, securities violations, or regulatory breaches—typically emerge from extended investigations rather than sudden developments. The rarity of arrests amongst sitting executives of major technology firms, absent specific allegations or regulatory action, contextualises the low probability. Comparable cases have generally involved documented misconduct uncovered through regulatory oversight or shareholder scrutiny rather than unexpected criminal exposure.
Traders monitoring this market should track announcements from federal agencies, particularly the Department of Justice, Securities and Exchange Commission, or Federal Trade Commission, given Anthropic's involvement in AI regulation discussions and potential future compliance matters. Congressional testimony or regulatory inquiries into AI safety practices could shift risk assessment. Additionally, any material corporate governance disputes, financial irregularities disclosed in filings, or involvement in legal proceedings would constitute relevant catalysts. The settlement window extends approximately eighteen months, providing substantial time for unforeseen developments, though the current probability reflects baseline expectations absent specific triggering events.
Claude is a series of large language models developed by Anthropic and first released in 2023. Since Claude 3, each generation has typically been released in three sizes, from least to most capable: Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus. An additional model named Claude Mythos was released to a handful of companies in 2026 but not to the public.
Anthropic rock is rock that is made, modified and moved by humans. Concrete is the most widely known example of this. The new category has been proposed to recognise that human-made rocks are likely to last for long periods of Earth's future geological time, and will be important in humanity's long-term future.
In cosmology and philosophy of science, the anthropic principle, also known as the observation selection effect, is the proposition that the range of possible observations that could be made about the universe is limited by the fact that observations are only possible in the type of universe that is capable of developing observers in the first place. Propone
Anthropic is an American artificial intelligence (AI) company headquartered in San Francisco. It has developed a range of large language models (LLMs) named Claude and focuses on AI safety. Anthropic was founded in 2021 by former members of OpenAI, including siblings Daniela Amodei and Dario Amodei, who are president and CEO, respectively. The company is pri
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Anthropic CEO arrested?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$161K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 1%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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