Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| May 31 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| September 30 | 78% YES | 23% NO |
Cloudflare operates a global content delivery network and security platform serving millions of websites and applications. The market assesses whether the company will experience at least one incident classified as "Critical" (red severity) that is fully resolved between now and 30 September 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 45% probability of this occurring, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about infrastructure reliability over the next 21 months.
Cloudflare has experienced several major incidents in recent years, including a 2020 outage affecting significant portions of its network and a 2022 incident that impacted customer dashboards. These events, whilst disruptive, were eventually resolved and classified accordingly. The 45% implied probability sits between baseline infrastructure risk—most large platforms experience critical incidents within any given two-year window—and Cloudflare's track record of relatively infrequent critical classifications. Comparable CDN and security providers have seen critical incidents at varying frequencies, making historical precedent somewhat ambiguous for precise probability calibration.
Traders should monitor Cloudflare's infrastructure expansion announcements, particularly any rapid scaling into new regions or service offerings that could introduce operational complexity. Regulatory changes affecting data centre operations, particularly in Europe and Asia-Pacific markets where Cloudflare maintains significant presence, could create cascading failure risks. The company's quarterly earnings calls and infrastructure status page updates will provide early signals of system strain or architectural changes that might increase incident likelihood.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17K in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $192 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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