Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 91% YES | 10% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Alabama's 5th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 9% implied probability for a Democratic victory in this seat, suggesting traders assess Republican retention as highly likely. AL-05 has been held by Republicans since 2013, when Mo Brooks won the seat; Brooks retained it through 2022 before retiring. The district's composition—spanning parts of north-central Alabama including Madison County—has trended Republican in recent cycles, though demographic shifts in suburban areas warrant monitoring.
Historical context for reading this probability comes from Alabama's broader electoral patterns. The state has become increasingly Republican at federal level, with Democrats holding no U.S. House seats since 2023. AL-05 specifically voted for Trump by approximately 15 percentage points in 2020, a margin that typically correlates with safe Republican House seats absent significant local factors. Comparable districts with similar partisan lean have seen Democratic probabilities in the 5–12% range when held by Republicans, suggesting the current 9% reflects baseline structural disadvantage rather than specific candidate or campaign dynamics.
Key catalysts for traders include candidate announcements, expected in spring 2026, and any redistricting developments, though Alabama's maps were recently redrawn. Primary election results in May 2026 will clarify Republican nominee strength. National political environment shifts—congressional approval ratings, midterm generic ballot trends—will influence the seat's competitiveness through autumn 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "AL-05 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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