Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election. A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election. If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Marine Le Pen | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Jordan Bardella | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| Person B | — | |
| Person J | — | |
| Person M | — | |
| Person S | — | |
| Person W | — | |
| Person X | — | |
France will hold its next presidential election in April 2027, and this market tracks whether the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) will field a candidate under its own party banner. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 18% probability that the RN will formally announce a designated candidate, with traders pricing in meaningful uncertainty around the party's strategic positioning heading into the contest.
The RN's candidacy decision sits within France's recent political volatility. Marine Le Pen led the party to its strongest-ever parliamentary showing in the June 2024 legislative elections, winning 143 seats, though she remains barred from holding elected office until 2027 due to a 2022 conviction. Historically, the RN has contested presidential elections as a core strategic vehicle; however, the party's evolving coalition dynamics and Le Pen's legal constraints create genuine ambiguity about whether it will pursue a formal candidacy or instead back an alternative figure. The 18% probability reflects traders' assessment that the party may pursue a different electoral strategy or that internal leadership transitions could alter its approach.
Key catalysts include formal party announcements regarding candidate selection, typically made in the months immediately preceding the election. The RN's national congress meetings and statements from party leadership—particularly from Marine Le Pen and current president Jordan Bardella—will signal the party's intentions. Any shifts in Le Pen's legal status or changes to party strategy following the 2024 legislative cycle could materially alter market pricing. Traders should monitor French political press coverage and official RN communications for explicit candidate designation announcements before the April 2027 settlement window closes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $108 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 April 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: