Trade: Israel military action against Yemen by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $27K
- Total Volume
- $1.7M
- 24h Volume
- $249
- Open Interest
- $70K
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Israel has not conducted direct military strikes against Yemeni territory since 2016, despite years of Houthi drone and missile attacks on Israeli cities and shipping in the Red Sea. The question of whether Israeli forces will initiate aerial strikes on Yemen by mid-2026 currently trades at 27% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about escalation thresholds and strategic calculations.
Historical precedent suggests Israeli decision-making on Yemen strikes depends on attack frequency and sophistication rather than isolated incidents. Israel conducted limited strikes on Houthi targets in 2016 following ballistic missile launches, but subsequent attacks—including dozens of drone strikes on Israeli territory in 2023 and 2024—did not trigger direct Israeli retaliation. The distinction matters: Israeli leadership has treated Houthi attacks as manageable through air defence systems and indirect responses via US-led coalition operations, rather than as justification for unilateral strikes. This restraint, despite provocation, underpins the current 27% probability.
Catalysts traders should monitor include significant changes in Houthi attack capability or frequency, particularly any strikes causing mass casualties or breaching air defences. Regional developments—such as escalation in Gaza or Lebanon, shifts in US policy toward Yemen, or Iranian involvement in weapons transfers—could alter Israeli calculations. The market also depends on definitional precision: strikes on Houthi-controlled areas versus recognised Yemeni government territory carry different political implications. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional analysts suggests the current trajectory favours continued indirect containment over direct action, though the 18-month settlement window allows substantial room for geopolitical shifts.
Wikipedia Context
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Israel Defense ForcesThe Israel Defense Forces, alternatively referred to by the Hebrew-language acronym Tzahal (צה״ל), is the national military of the State of Israel. It consists of three service branches: the Israeli Ground Forces, the Israeli Air Force, and the Israeli Navy. It is the sole military wing of the Israeli security apparatus. The IDF is headed by the chief of the
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History of the Israel Defense ForcesThe history of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intertwines in its early stages with history of the Haganah.
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IMI Systems
IMI Systems, previously Israel Military Industries, also referred to as Ta'as, was an Israeli weapons manufacturer. The company manufactured weapons, munitions and military technology mainly for the Israeli security forces.
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Israel Defense Forces insignia
This page details the uniforms and insignia of the Israel Defense Forces, excluding rank insignia. For ranks, see Israel Defense Forces ranks and insignia.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Israel military action against Yemen by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1.7M in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for middle east contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $249 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Israel military action against Yemen by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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