Trade: When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $43K
- Total Volume
- $82K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $12K
Market outcomes
| May 15–22 | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| May 30–June 5 | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| June 13–19 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| June 27–July 3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Before May 15 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| May 23–29 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| June 6–12 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| June 20–26 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair runs through June 2026, with the current market pricing a 93% probability that he will have departed the role by the settlement deadline of 3 July 2026. The resolution criteria require Powell to actually vacate the position rather than merely announce his departure or reach the scheduled end of his term; temporary service whilst awaiting a successor's confirmation would not trigger settlement. Polymarket's order book is currently pricing this high probability, reflecting market participants' assessment that Powell will not remain in post through the final settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests Fed Chairs typically serve their full terms absent extraordinary circumstances. Paul Volcker completed his eight-year tenure (1979–1987), Alan Greenspan served 18 years (1987–2006), and Ben Bernanke completed two full terms before stepping down as scheduled in 2014. Janet Yellen similarly departed at the conclusion of her term in 2018. The only recent exception was Donald Trump's public criticism of Jerome Powell, though Powell remained in office throughout Trump's first presidency. The 93% implied probability reflects confidence that Powell will follow the established pattern of completing his scheduled tenure.
The primary catalyst for movement in this market remains the 2024 presidential election outcome and any subsequent policy signals regarding Fed leadership. Powell has indicated willingness to serve his full term if asked, though formal reappointment discussions typically occur 18 months before term expiry. Any announcement from the incoming administration regarding Powell's future status would materially shift pricing. Market participants should monitor Federal Reserve communications and White House statements through early 2025 for clarity on leadership continuity.
Wikipedia Context
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Jerome PowellJerome Hayden "Jay" Powell is an American central banker and attorney who has been the 16th chair of the Federal Reserve since 2018. He was previously both a lawyer and investment banker in the private sector before entering public service.
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Jeremy PowellJeremy Robert Powell is an American former professional baseball player. He is currently the pitching coach for the AAA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. He played for the Montreal Expos in Major League Baseball (MLB).
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Herbert Charles PollittHerbert Charles Pollitt, also known as Jerome Pollitt, was a female impersonator who performed as Diane de Rougy. He became notorious as a Cambridge undergraduate due to his taste for Decadent art and literature, and was immortalised as the eponymous hero of an E. F. Benson novel in 1896. He became a very close friend of the artist Aubrey Beardsley, and had
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$82K in lifetime turnover and $43K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for jerome powell contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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