Trade: WI-04 House Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $24K
- Total Volume
- $18K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| B | — | |
| E | — | |
| C | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Other | — | |
| A | — | |
Market context
Wisconsin's 4th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 4% probability of a Republican victory, reflecting strong Democratic incumbency in this urban Milwaukee-based seat. The district has voted Democratic in recent cycles, with incumbent Gwen Moore holding the seat since 2005 and winning re-election in 2024 with 60% of the vote.
Historical context suggests the 4% probability reflects WI-04's structural Democratic lean. The district voted for Joe Biden by approximately 20 percentage points in 2020 and has remained one of Wisconsin's most reliably Democratic seats. Comparable urban districts in the Midwest have shown similar resistance to Republican gains during midterm swings. The 2022 midterms, despite national Republican momentum, saw Democrats retain most urban House seats in the region, with Moore winning by a similar margin to her 2024 performance.
Traders should monitor Moore's health and political status through 2025, as any retirement announcement would reshape the race dynamics. The Wisconsin state legislature's composition after 2024 redistricting efforts and any changes to the district's boundaries ahead of 2026 could alter the electorate. National economic conditions and approval ratings heading into the midterms will influence baseline Republican performance in Democratic-leaning districts, though WI-04's structural advantage remains substantial.
Wikipedia Context
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Amy WinehouseAmy Jade Winehouse was a British singer, songwriter, musician, and businesswoman. She is known for her distinctive contralto vocals, expressive and autobiographical songwriting, and eclectic blend of genres such as soul, rhythm and blues, and jazz. Her music, along with her fashion and highly publicised personal life, made her an influential figure in popula
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Amy Winehouse discographyEnglish singer and songwriter Amy Winehouse released two studio albums, two live albums, one compilation album, five extended plays, 15 singles, three video albums and 14 music videos. Winehouse has sold over 30 million records worldwide, including 1.75 million singles and over 3.98 million albums in the United Kingdom. She has also sold approximately 3.4 mi
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The Wild House
The Wild House is a serialised children's programme produced between 1997 and 1999 broadcast by the BBC. The programme was based on an idea of Jean Buchanan's. Later series were written partially by Mark Haddon, author of The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time. It follows the life of Natalie Wild and the other members of the Wild family.
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WikiHouseWikiHouse is an open-source project for designing and building houses. It endeavours to democratise and simplify the construction of sustainable, resource-light dwellings. The project was initiated in the summer of 2011 by Alastair Parvin and Nick Ierodiaconou of 00, a London-based strategy and design practice, in collaboration with Tav of Espians, James Art
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "WI-04 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$18K in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "WI-04 House Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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