Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Candidate J | — | |
| Candidate L | — | |
| Candidate N | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Candidate K | — | |
| Candidate M | — | |
| Candidate O | — | |
California's 11th congressional district will hold its primary election on 2 June 2026, with the top vote-getter advancing to the general election regardless of party affiliation under the state's top-two primary system. Nancy Pelosi, who has represented the district since 1987, announced her retirement from Congress in November 2022, leaving the seat open for the first time in nearly four decades. The district, which encompasses parts of San Francisco and the surrounding Bay Area, has been heavily Democratic, though demographic shifts and local political dynamics may influence the field of candidates and their relative strength.
Historical precedent suggests that open-seat races in safe Democratic districts attract multiple candidates from the party, often fragmenting the vote. When Pelosi's predecessor Phillip Burton died in 1983, the special election saw significant competition among Democrats. The current market has not yet established an order book with live pricing, so no implied probability has formed. Traders should monitor candidate announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, as the field composition will materially affect vote distribution. Key dates include the candidate filing deadline and any major endorsements from local Democratic organisations or state figures. Recent California primary outcomes, including the 2024 cycle, provide benchmarks for understanding how vote splitting occurs in multi-candidate races within the state's primary system.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$353K in lifetime turnover and $59K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $36 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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