Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Alexis Solis | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dave Sundberg | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ellis Colvin | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Harry Jarin | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Heather Luper | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jerry Lightfoot | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Kenneth Simons | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mark Kenneth Arness | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Maryland's 5th congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 23 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either an absence of substantive trading activity or a market consensus that no Democratic nominee will be formally announced by the 3 November 2026 resolution deadline. This pricing appears disconnected from historical precedent: Democratic primaries in Maryland's 5th have consistently produced nominees well ahead of general election cycles, with candidates typically declared during the spring preceding the election year.
The district's recent political composition provides context for assessing nomination likelihood. Maryland's 5th is a reliably Democratic seat in the Baltimore metropolitan area, making the primary outcome the effective determinant of representation. Previous cycles have seen competitive primaries with multiple declared candidates months before voting, suggesting organisational activity and candidate announcements typically begin in late 2025 or early 2026. The Maryland Democratic Party and national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee typically formalise nominee status shortly after primary results.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and formal campaign filings beginning in autumn 2025, which would signal whether the field is developing normally. Local Maryland news sources and the Democratic National Committee's candidate tracking will provide early indicators of whether the primary is proceeding on schedule. The resolution mechanism's dependency on official Democrat sources means that any ambiguity in nominee status between the primary date and the November deadline would be clarified through those channels.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $39K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $19 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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