Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 91% YES | 10% NO |
| A | — | |
| Republican Party | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
Illinois's 8th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket prices Democratic retention at 91%, reflecting confidence in the party's hold on a seat they have controlled since 2013. The district, which spans parts of Cook County including portions of Chicago's southwest side and suburbs, has voted Democratic in recent cycles, though its composition and voter registration patterns will shape competitive dynamics heading into 2026.
Historical context suggests the 91% implied probability reflects both structural Democratic advantage and uncertainty typical of midterm forecasting two years out. Illinois's 8th has trended Democratic since Raja Krishna's 2012 victory, with subsequent representatives winning by margins between 8 and 20 percentage points. However, midterm swings can be substantial; the 2022 cycle saw Republican gains in suburban districts nationally, though Illinois's 8th remained Democratic. The current probability accounts for typical incumbent advantages whilst acknowledging the unpredictability of economic conditions, national political momentum and candidate quality in 2026.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements from both parties, expected in late 2025 and early 2026, alongside redistricting confirmation if any legal challenges emerge. National economic indicators and approval ratings will influence the baseline environment for all House races. Local demographic shifts and any special elections or vacancies affecting the seat before 2026 could materially alter the calculus. The settlement window closes on 3 November 2026, one day before the election.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IL-08 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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