Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Castelfranco Veneto, Italy mayoral runoff election is currently scheduled to be held on June 7 and 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Castelfranco Veneto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Maria Wanjera Ghimenton | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
| Luca Pozzobon | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Other | — | |
Castelfranco Veneto, a municipality in the Veneto region of northeastern Italy, will hold mayoral elections on 7–8 June 2026, with potential runoff provisions if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round. The election determines who will serve as the next mayor of this comune of roughly 32,000 residents. The market currently implies a 54% probability for the affirmative outcome, reflecting moderate uncertainty about the electoral result. Settlement depends on credible reporting consensus and extends through April 2027, with resolution to "Other" if results remain unknown by that deadline.
Italian municipal elections typically feature multi-candidate first rounds followed by runoffs between the top two contenders if necessary. Castelfranco Veneto's political composition reflects broader Veneto dynamics, where centre-right and centre-left coalitions compete alongside regional and independent candidates. Historical turnout in comparable Veneto municipalities ranges from 55–70%, with results often determined by local economic conditions, infrastructure priorities, and incumbent performance. The current 54% probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders assess the leading candidate or coalition as slightly favoured but face genuine uncertainty about final outcomes.
Key catalysts include official candidate declarations and coalition formations, typically announced in the months preceding June 2026, along with any local economic or administrative developments affecting voter sentiment. Italian municipal elections occasionally produce surprise results when local issues dominate national political narratives. Traders should monitor Veneto regional news sources and official municipal communications for campaign developments that might shift the probability away from current levels.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Castelfranco Veneto Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5 in lifetime turnover and $90 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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