Big tech

Trade: Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above 2026?

Opened 16 May 2026 · Settles 2 June 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Palo Alto Networks' Next Generation-Security ARR for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $15K
24h Volume: $5K
Open Interest: $3K

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Market outcomes

$7.5B	100% YES	0% NO
$8.5B	0% YES	100% NO
$8.0B	100% YES	0% NO

Market context

Palo Alto Networks will report its third fiscal quarter 2026 results in early June 2026, with the market settling on whether Next-Generation Security Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) exceeds a specified threshold. The 99% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong conviction that the company will clear this bar, with current bids and asks concentrated heavily on the "Yes" side, indicating minimal liquidity for contrarian positions.

Palo Alto's NGS ARR has demonstrated consistent growth trajectory over recent quarters, driven by platform consolidation demand and expansion within existing customer bases. The company reported $5.7bn in total ARR as of Q2 fiscal 2026, with NGS representing a material and accelerating component. Historical performance suggests the company has reliably met or exceeded guidance on this metric, establishing a pattern that informs the current market pricing. Comparable security vendors have similarly maintained upward ARR momentum despite macroeconomic headwinds, though Palo Alto's scale and product positioning provide structural advantages.

Traders should monitor the company's Q2 earnings call guidance for Q3 expectations, typically provided in May 2026, which would directly inform the settlement threshold. Any material M&A activity, significant customer wins or losses, or shifts in platform adoption rates could alter trajectory. The settlement hinges entirely on figures disclosed in official earnings materials; subsequent revisions or restatements will not be considered, creating binary risk around reporting accuracy and metric definitions as presented by the company.

Wikipedia Context

Palo Alto, California
Palo Alto is a charter city in northwestern Santa Clara County, California, United States, in the San Francisco Bay Area, named after a coastal redwood tree known as El Palo Alto.
Palo Alto Unified School District
The Palo Alto Unified School District is a public school district located near Stanford University in Palo Alto, California. It consists of twelve primary schools, three middle schools, two comprehensive high schools, an alternative high school, and an adult school.
Palo Alto High School
Palo Alto Senior High School is a comprehensive public high school in Palo Alto, California. Operated by the Palo Alto Unified School District, the school is one of two high schools in the district, the other being across town: Gunn High School, with which Paly has a rivalry.
Palo Alto Networks
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is an American multinational cybersecurity company with headquarters in Santa Clara, California. The core product is a platform that includes advanced firewalls and cloud-based offerings that extend those firewalls to cover other aspects of security. The company serves over 70,000 organizations in over 150 countries, including 85 of

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$15K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for big tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above 2026?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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