Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 0.80 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 0.90 | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| 1.00 | 98% YES | 3% NO |
| 1.10 | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| 1.20 | 84% YES | 17% NO |
| 1.30 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 1.40 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 1.50 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
This market settles on XRP's closing price at noon Eastern Time on 7 June 2026, using the 1-minute candle from Binance's XRP/USDT pair. The 99% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in an exceptionally high likelihood that XRP will trade above the specified threshold at that precise moment. Such extreme probabilities typically indicate either a very tight price band relative to current spot levels, or consensus around XRP's medium-term directional bias.
Historical precedent suggests that single-point-in-time price predictions for major cryptocurrencies, when settled on specific exchange candles, often hinge on volatility clustering and intraday momentum rather than fundamental shifts. XRP has historically exhibited substantial daily ranges; a noon close prediction two years forward carries execution risk tied to broader crypto market conditions, regulatory developments, and Ripple's commercial adoption metrics. The specificity of the Binance USDT pair and the 1-minute resolution eliminate cross-exchange arbitrage considerations but introduce microstructure sensitivity.
Key variables affecting settlement include any significant regulatory announcements regarding XRP's classification, major partnerships or integrations announced by Ripple, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment in early June 2026. Traders should monitor Ripple's quarterly business updates and any developments in ongoing litigation or regulatory clarity, which have historically driven material XRP price movements. The settlement window's precision—noon ET on a specific date—means that intraday volatility, market open conditions, and any overnight news flow from Asian or European markets could influence the final candle close materially.
The XRP Ledger (XRPL), also called the Ripple Protocol, is a cryptocurrency platform launched in 2012 by Ripple Labs. The XRPL employs the native cryptocurrency known as XRP, and supports tokens, cryptocurrency or other units of value such as frequent flyer miles or mobile minutes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP above 2026 on June 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$615 in lifetime turnover and $58K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $457 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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