Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament). This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Assembly as a result of the next Central African parliamentary election. If initial voting in the next Central African parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Geopolitical markets aggregate signals from journalists, analysts, and locals — often pricing in news days before mainstream outlets report it. Current odds favour the YES side at 86%, making this a high-confidence market (the resolution date has passed — final payout is being settled via UMA oracle), backed by $26K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| MCU | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| MOUNI | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| RDC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| UNDP | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Party A | — | |
| Party C | — | |
| Party E | — | |
| Party G | — | |
The Central African Republic will hold parliamentary elections on 28 December 2025 to determine the composition of its 140-seat National Assembly. The current Polymarket order book implies an 86% probability that a single party or coalition will secure a plurality of seats, with settlement contingent on initial voting occurring by 30 June 2026. The market's high confidence reflects baseline expectations that the election will proceed as scheduled, though CAR's history of political instability and postponements creates material tail risk.
CAR's electoral track record offers limited precedent for confident prediction. The 2016 parliamentary election saw fragmented results with no dominant party, whilst the 2020 election occurred amid armed conflict and international mediation. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra's political position has strengthened since his 2021 re-election, but his government faces persistent security challenges in much of the country and international scrutiny over alleged Russian military involvement. Previous elections have experienced delays and logistical constraints typical of post-conflict states with limited administrative capacity.
Key catalysts for traders include security developments in the lead-up to voting, any formal postponement announcements from CAR's electoral commission, and international observer assessments of electoral conditions. The settlement window extends to mid-2026 to accommodate potential second-round voting, but the 30 June deadline for initial voting creates a hard resolution trigger. Monitoring statements from regional bodies like ECOWAS and the African Union will signal confidence in the election's viability. Any significant deterioration in security or administrative capacity could shift the probability materially downward.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 28 December 2025. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Geopolitical markets sometimes see longer dispute windows because resolution sources can be contested (e.g. competing official announcements). PolyGram pre-screens the resolution source on listing to minimise ambiguity. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Central African Republic National Assembly Election Winner", geopolitical markets often have stickier spreads (3-7¢) reflecting the genuine uncertainty in the underlying outcome — patient limit orders fill at meaningfully better prices than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($26K of resting liquidity), a $100 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Central African Republic National Assembly Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$114K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $40 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 December 2025. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Central African Republic National Assembly Election Winner", the considerations above apply directly — Geopolitical markets carry resolution risk: in rare cases the underlying event itself may be reinterpreted or the resolution source may publish ambiguously, triggering a UMA dispute. Avoid all-in positions on these markets.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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