Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 20°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 21°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 22°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 23°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 24°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 25°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 26°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 27°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 8 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. Wuhan's climate during early May typically transitions from spring into early summer, with daily highs commonly between 25–32°C, though variability exists year to year depending on prevailing weather patterns and seasonal timing.
Historical data from Wuhan shows May temperatures have ranged considerably. Over the past decade, maximum temperatures on comparable dates have fluctuated between 22°C and 35°C, with most years clustering around 28–30°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are currently pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across certain ranges. This formation reflects the inherent difficulty in pinpointing weather outcomes months in advance; atmospheric conditions in May 2026 remain subject to broader seasonal patterns, potential anomalies, and real-time meteorological developments.
Key variables affecting settlement include the East Asian monsoon system's intensity, any tropical cyclone activity in the region, and broader climate oscillations such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal forecasts in April, which could shift trader positioning. Wunderground's historical data from Wuhan Tianhe serves as the authoritative resolution source, making the specific station's recording methodology material to outcomes. Traders should monitor spring weather patterns across East Asia from March onwards, as these often signal May conditions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$70K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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