Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 7°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 8°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 9°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 10°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 11°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 12°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 13°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 14°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the highest temperature recorded at Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport on 9 May 2026, with resolution determined by NOAA data once all hourly readings are finalised. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning traders are pricing the likelihood of specific temperature ranges occurring during a single calendar day in late spring at this major Russian hub airport.
Moscow's May temperatures typically range between 10–22°C, though readings above 25°C occur in roughly one-third of years during this period. Historical May 9th data shows considerable variability: the city has recorded highs from 8°C in cooler years to 28°C in warmer ones. The 0% implied probability currently reflected in Polymarket's order book suggests the market has concentrated liquidity in lower temperature ranges, with traders assigning negligible odds to the warmest outcome brackets. This positioning reflects baseline seasonal expectations rather than any specific forecast signal.
The primary catalyst affecting this market is the evolution of European weather patterns through April and early May 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from meteorological services, particularly any signals of early heat waves or persistent cold patterns affecting Eastern Europe. The timing of spring warming in the Northern Hemisphere typically accelerates through May, making late-season forecasts increasingly reliable as the settlement date approaches. NOAA's own extended forecasts, updated regularly, will provide the most direct indicator of atmospheric conditions likely to prevail on the resolution date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Moscow on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$73K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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