Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 18°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 19°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 20°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 21°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 22°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 23°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 24°C | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 25°C | 1% YES | 99% NO |
On 9 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Milan's Malpensa International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all outcomes on Polymarket's order book, indicating either illiquidity or that traders have not yet positioned ahead of this spring weather event. Settlement will be determined by historical temperature data from Weather Underground once the day concludes.
Milan's May temperatures typically range between 15–28°C, though the city has recorded highs exceeding 30°C during warm springs. Historical data from previous May 9ths shows considerable variability: the city experienced 22°C in 2023 and 26°C in 2022, with occasional cooler years dropping to 18°C. The current 0% probability across all ranges suggests the market has not yet attracted substantive trading interest, making the order book sparse and prices unreliable as forecasts until volume increases.
Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly those from ECMWF and national meteorological services, which typically provide reliable ten-day outlooks five to seven days before the event. Atmospheric patterns affecting northern Italy during late spring—including high-pressure systems moving northward from the Mediterranean or cool Atlantic fronts—will be the primary drivers of temperature outcomes. Current seasonal models suggest typical late-spring conditions, though anomalies remain possible given natural variability in spring weather systems.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Milan on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$94K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $78K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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