Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 35°C or below | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 36°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 37°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 38°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 39°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 41°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 42°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 9 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow will fall within a specific range measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 100% implied probability across the order book, indicating that traders have priced in certainty that a temperature reading will occur and be recorded by the settlement deadline of 12:00 UTC that day. This unanimous pricing suggests either complete confidence in the underlying event or minimal liquidity testing alternative outcomes.
Lucknow's May temperatures are historically consistent, with daily highs typically ranging between 40–45°C during this period. Historical data from the India Meteorological Department shows May represents the peak of the pre-monsoon season in Uttar Pradesh, with minimal year-to-year volatility in maximum temperatures during the first week of the month. Previous years' readings provide a narrow band of expected outcomes, which may explain why the market has consolidated at extreme probability levels rather than distributing across multiple temperature bands.
The resolution depends entirely on Weather Underground's historical data feed from the airport station, which updates once daily observations are finalised. Traders should monitor any disruptions to the weather station's operation or data transmission, though such outages are rare at major international airports. The monsoon onset timeline, typically beginning in late May across northern India, remains too distant to influence temperatures on 9 May. No scheduled weather events or atmospheric anomalies are forecast for that specific date based on current seasonal patterns.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$33K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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