Trade: Highest temperature in Denver on May 10?

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Buckley Space Force Base Station in Aurora, Colorado on 10 May 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Settlement will be determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground once the day concludes and records are finalised. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with market initialisation, as any given day must record some maximum temperature.

Denver's May weather patterns show considerable variability. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates May highs in the Denver metropolitan area typically range from 70–80°F, though temperatures can exceed 85°F during warm spells or fall below 60°F during cooler periods. The 30-year normal high for Denver in early May is approximately 72°F. Buckley Space Force Base, located on the eastern plains near Aurora, often records temperatures 2–4°F higher than downtown Denver due to elevation and urban heat island effects.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly atmospheric patterns that might drive early-season heat waves across the Front Range. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center issues monthly outlooks several weeks in advance. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, could influence spring temperature patterns. As settlement approaches, traders will rely on real-time meteorological data and the specific station's historical performance during comparable weather events.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Denver on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$51K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $78 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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